Diffusion of Innovations

One of my favorite classes in college was called Diffusion of Innovations. It's all about how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread through cultures. So it's something I;m always thinking about, especially when people get overexcited about new technologies and how they are instantly "revolutionary."

It's interesting how long it takes for technology to change behavior. The Sony Betamax VCR was positioned as a time shifting device (see attached) when it was launched this month in 1975. It's taken 33 years, but consumers finally seem to be getting with the whole time shifting thing.

Some may remember that while color TV launched in 1950, the number of color television sets sold in the U.S. did not exceed black and white sales until 1972. WCBS-HD launched the first US HD broadcast in April 1997, and still 11 years later, less than 30% of US homes get HD service.

Who knows, using these sorts of timelines, online video and Video On Demand will really catch on around 2025.